What Anderson County Democrats built in a Trump +36 county — and why Thursday was a beginning, not an ending.

If you looked only at the presidential numbers, you could decide pretty quickly what is supposed to be possible for Democrats in Anderson County.

Donald Trump won here 67.3% to 31.5% in 2024. Nearly a 36-point margin.

That is the kind of number people point to when they call a county “deep red,” write off whole communities and start talking about which races Democrats should bother contesting. Then Thursday happened.

Anderson County voters elected four Democrats to the County Commission.

Democrats contested five of the county’s eight commission districts. Ebony Capshaw finished first in District 6. Sharon Bourgeois Capshaw finished first in District 7, where Steve Verran won the second seat by just three votes. In District 8, Liz Henry tied Republican Jawrell Cook for the highest vote total, with 749 votes each.

We did not win everything.

Rodney Archer came up short in District 3. Marty May came up short in District 5. Derek Guy finished third in District 6, just 56 votes away from giving Democrats both seats there.

But when the new Commission takes office, Anderson County Democrats will have gone from two commissioners to four. Democrats won both seats in District 7. We came 56 votes from doing the same thing in District 6.

Thursday did not suddenly turn Anderson County blue. That is not the lesson we should learn from this.

But what we can learn is much more useful than that.

Democrats can win here when we recruit people willing to run, organize around them and do the work necessary to give voters a reason to show up.

A presidential margin can tell you something about a county. It cannot tell you everything that is possible inside it.

… And Democrats showed up

The turnout numbers matter because they tell us Thursday was bigger than a handful of individual races.

For the cleanest comparison across August election cycles, we looked at votes cast in the Democratic gubernatorial primary.

In 2018, Anderson County voters cast 3,810 Democratic votes for governor.

In 2022, that number fell to 2,593.

This year? 3,895. Of those votes, 1,512 were cast on Election Day, joining 2,287 early votes and 96 absentee ballots.

That is 1,302 more Democratic votes than four years ago — an increase of more than 50%.

And it is 85 more votes than 2018.

Again, this happened in a county Donald Trump carried by nearly 36 points.

That matters because there is a bad habit in politics of treating presidential results like a permanent census of what people believe. We look at a county, attach a partisan number to it and start making decisions about what is possible before anybody has actually tried to organize the people who live there.

But “Trump +36” does not mean every voter in Anderson County is a Republican. It does not mean every Republican votes Republican in every race. It does not mean Democratic voters disappear between presidential elections. And it certainly does not mean there are not thousands of people here who can be organized around good candidates and local issues.

Thursday gave us 3,895 reasons not to write this county off.

Your new County Commission

When the new Anderson County Commission takes office, its 16 members will include 11 Republicans, four Democrats and one independent.

The members elected Thursday are:

District 1: Tracy Wandell (I) and Chad McNabb (R)
District 2: Denise Palmer (R) and Michael Foster (R)
District 3: Shelly Vandagriff (R) and Shannon Gray (R)
District 4: Tim Isbel (R) and J. Shain Vowell (R)
District 5: Jeff Pack (R) and Robert McKamey (R)
District 6: Ebony Capshaw (D) and Aaron Wells (R)
District 7: Sharon Bourgeois Capshaw (D) and Steve Verran (D)
District 8: Jawrell Cook (R) and Liz Henry (D)

The new commissioners will be sworn in in September. We’ll have more information soon about the swearing-in, the new Commission and what the changing makeup of county government means for Anderson County.

Thursday also set the November ballot

The August primary also settled the major-party matchups Anderson County voters will see in the November 3 general election.

Governor: Jerri Green (D) will face Marsha Blackburn (R), after both won their respective primaries Thursday.

U.S. Senate: Marquita Bradshaw (D) will face Bill Hagerty (R), a rematch of the 2020 U.S. Senate election.

U.S. House, District 3: Anna Golladay (D) will face incumbent Chuck Fleischmann (R).

Tennessee Senate, District 5: David Miller (D) will face Jimmy Matlock (R) for an open seat created by Lt. Gov. Randy McNally’s retirement. McNally has represented Senate District 5 since 1986. For the first time in four decades, Anderson County voters will help choose someone new to represent this district in the Tennessee Senate.

Tennessee House, District 33: Anne Backus (D) will face incumbent Rick Scarbrough (R), a rematch of their 2024 general election.

Tennessee House, District 41: R. Jason Goodman (D) will face incumbent Ed Butler (R).

Depending on where you live in Anderson County, your November ballot will include either House District 33 or House District 41.

And that brings us to what happens next.

A blue wave is something we make

There is going to be plenty of talk between now and November about whether a “blue wave” is coming. Maybe it is.

But election wins are not weather events.

A blue wave is not something that magically happens to us. It is something we make.

We make it by recruiting candidates who are willing to run where people have been told Democrats cannot win. We make it by helping those candidates explain clearly what they are fighting for. We make it by knocking doors, making phone calls, sending texts, putting up signs, having conversations and showing up in communities that political professionals too often reduce to a number on a spreadsheet.

That work is not glamorous. Most of it never makes the news. But Thursday showed what it can produce.

It would be easy now to look at four Democratic seats on the County Commission, turnout more than 50% above 2022 and encouraging Democratic results elsewhere in Tennessee and decide something has changed on its own.

Nothing changed on its own.

Candidates stepped forward.
Volunteers showed up.
Neighbors talked to neighbors.
People donated money, knocked doors, made calls, staffed events, sent texts, delivered signs and spent months asking people to participate.
Then voters showed up.

If we convince ourselves Thursday simply happened to us, we will make the mistake of assuming November will happen to us too.

Now is not the time to call it a win and sit it out.

There are thousands of Anderson County voters who showed us Thursday that they are willing to participate.

Our job now is not to admire that number. Our job is to organize it.

Come to a meeting. Volunteer for a candidate. Knock some doors. Make some calls. Talk to the people you know. Give what you can. Find the part of this work that you can do and do it.

Because a wave is what everybody talks about after the votes are counted. The organizing happens for months before.

And if there is going to be a blue wave in November, let’s build it.

Help us keep organizing

Thursday’s results did not happen by accident. Your donations help fund voter contact, communications, events and the year-round organizing necessary to compete in every corner of Anderson County.

DONATE TO OUR ORGANIZING EFFORTS

JOIN US AT OUR NEXT GENERAL ASSEMBLY

We’ll take a deeper look at the August results, talk about what we learned and turn our attention toward the work ahead. More information is coming soon. Sign up for our Porchlight Newsletter, so you don’t miss the announcement.

A Blue Wave Doesn’t Happen *to Us