Just how many Center-Left and Left Voters are there in Anderson County

acdp ope1n.jpg

Sometimes we seem so few.  A small number of people whose vision of an inclusive, caring, and equitable Anderson County seems to be out of step in Trump's America.  So many residents here believe this is a red county with a smattering of blue here and there, mainly in parts of Oak Ridge.  Republicans, confident in their numbers, consider us an annoyance at best and a none-entity at worst.  Are they correct in their belief?

No.  As in many things, they are wrong.  Let's take a look why.  The Democrat National Committee (DNC) has three Voter Analysis companies on retainer which we access on Votebuilder and we also have a "snapshot" of Anderson County voters from a purchase I made from Catalist (another voter analysis company).  These companies use past voter history, survey results, and a host of other "big data" information they can acquire to create voter metrics.  One is partisanship (adherence to a party), another is likelihood of voting in 2018 elections, and yet another is ideological consistency.  Here are the numbers for Anderson County.

First, remember Jim Hackworth garnered 12,126 votes and lost to John Ragan by only 702 votes.  So 12,000ish is our benchmark in 2018.  Since 2012 was a presidential election year, there was a large number of voters.  We are in a non-presidential election year, but need to generate the same number of voters.  Can we?

The DNC's three companies can be abbreviated as DNC Support, TargetSmart, and DCCC Blue.  We have Catalist 2018.  Using just partisanship (0=perfect Republican and 100 = perfect Democrat), the three DNC have all voters from 1 to 100 and I have two Catalist (2017 & 2018) lists.  We will use partisanship scores of 60-100 for this review.

So...here are the numbers (finally).  DNC Support has 7072 voters that fit the parameters above.  DCCC Blue has 8228 voters and TargetSmart has 8213 voters with scores over 60.  Finally, Catalist 2018 has 12,186 individuals with score over 60 that includes both voters and folks are unregistered.

We are having strong voter registration pushes (led by Diane Petrilla) currently to build our voter base.  Meanwhile, if we have the majority of those voters turn out for a mid-term election and if we can get some center-right voters, then we will win.  

Next blog will give the past election numbers to show how all of this is possible.